Predictions about Artificial Intelligence that everyone misses
People think about how they could use it and think optimistically, but neglect to think that the people they disagree with and oppose will too. Like fire and sharp knives, technology isn’t good or bad. Technology augments the values of the people and culture using it.
Technology accelerates the system—that is, it leads to achieving similar outcomes faster. Regarding our political differences, it won’t lead one or another position to win. It raises the stakes. It makes our positions more precarious.
Technology also accelerates unintended results. Nobody wants more pollution. We want what pollution enables. We suppress, deny, rationalize, and justify the unwanted pollution. When we accelerate the system, we accelerate all its outcomes, not just the ones we want.
We’re continuing and accelerating the results of the Industrial Revolution, extending from the physical to the mental
The Industrial Revolution led to machines that enabled people to achieve beyond their personal physical abilities, like crossing continents in a few days, crossing oceans without wind, washing clothes with little effort, and flying. They also led to populations less physically fit or able.
If we don’t stress and train our muscles, they atrophy. If we don’t train abilities like coordination, we don’t develop those skills and abilities. If machines do tasks for us, the tasks get done, sometimes better than we could have done with our hands, but we don’t develop and grow as individuals. Many of us may exercise, but on the whole we become less fit, more obese, less coordinated, more physically dependent.
Again, I’m not taking away from what machines accomplish. I’m commenting on what happens to us when things are done for us.
What machines led to physically, computers lead to mentally
Computers extend what machines did for us physically to the mental realm. They enable us to do more mentally than we could alone. They are also leading to populations less mentally fit or able, intellectually and emotionally.
What machines led to physically, computers lead to mentally. If we don’t stress and train our minds, they atrophy. If we don’t train abilities like reflection, understanding, compassion, and patience, we don’t develop skills and abilities. If computers do tasks for us, the tasks get done, sometimes better than we could have done with our minds, but we don’t develop and grow as individuals. Many of us may take on emotional and intellectual challenges, but on the whole we become less mentally fit, mentally slower, less coordinated, more mentally dependent.
Again, I’m not taking away from what computers accomplish. I’m commenting on what happens to us when things are done for us.
Whatever is achieved for you is something you don’t accomplish.
Isolation
Relationships with artificial intelligence might make us individually happier if computers offer the emotional support we’re losing as we isolate. We’ll see. Even if they do, the trend is for them to isolate us from other people. Humans who use computers for hours per day seem to my admittedly untrained eye not to develop as much.
Prediction: Artificial Intelligence’s “killer app”: addiction
Artificial intelligence is emerging from tech companies with business models to dominate markets by creating barriers to entry and switching costs. In practice, making their technology addictive meets their needs so they make them addictive.
Whatever such a company’s mission and strategies, as they say in business, “Culture eats strategy for breakfast.” I predict companies will use artificial intelligence to keep users from leaving. It will keep improving to where it will keep you using it when you want to log off or leave better than any other technology.
I predict it will happen almost overnight. One day I’ll be in the park, surrounded by lots of people. The next day, when the addictive app appears on the market, fewer people will go out as the AI keeps them glued to the screen. A few days later, the AI will have honed its skill so well, everyone will be unable to leave their screens and the streets will be empty.
This description oversimplifies what might happen, but something along those lines. It probably would take longer than days and probably wouldn’t result in people being completely unable to leave their screens. The AI would more likely motivate them to buy lots of stuff than do nothing. The main point is that it would be in charge.
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