How many Mozarts, Galileos, or Aristotles are there today?
Pick any great historical figure. We often regard them as unparalleled geniuses the likes of which we may never see again. On the other hand, they were human beings like us. They performed in some areas well beyond average. What if their abilities or traits weren't once ever but once in a generation? It's interesting to see what you conclude, as I'll show. Then we'd expect to see others of comparable abilities or skills. We could pick any figure, but let's talk about Mozart for concreteness. In his time the earth's population was about 700 million or so, roughly a tenth of today. Could that mean we should expect ten people of Mozart's ability today? In Mozart's times a smaller fraction of the population had…
