Models

Perhaps you've seen the headlines about tomorrow: World population to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022, according to United Nations predictions. Are we overpopulated? You've seen graphs of population projections from the UN showing the population leveling off or possibly decreasing by 2100 like this one. Does the graph reassure you and make you feel good that the population problem is working itself out with no big collapse likely, nor that we keep growing forever. Whew! The United Nations shows we're safe. Right? Wrong. They were designed to look this way no matter what we do to the Earth. They only depend on past human demographics and nearly ignore the environment. That is, they are based on trends in birth rates, death rates, and…

I just watched a documentary, La Foret d’Ebo. One of the people who lives in the Ebo forest in Cameroon says: “The Ebo forest requires strong protection, for us and for generations to come. I never would have thought that one day someone would try to sell the Ebo forest. Ever since I found out I have been wondering why. If we are alive today, it is only because of the forest.” Repeating for emphasis: "If we are alive today, it is only because of the forest." Compare Alex Epstein's The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels. He wrote, "One crucial truth is that climate is naturally volatile and dangerous. Absent a modern, developed civilization, any climate will frequently overwhelm human beings with climate-related risks—extreme heat,…

If you believe that nonstop growth of the economy and population is impossible on a finite planet, you expect that either we have to stop growing deliberately or nature will cause both to collapse. If you further believe we have have overshot what Earth can sustain, you expect that even if we stop now, nature will cause both to collapse. Growing onto other planets doesn't help because even if we can grow there, we'd still either have to stop growing here or collapse here. So if you believe we've overshot Earth's limits, our only path is to degrow, or decrease the size of our economy and, in peaceful, voluntary, noncoercive ways, population. I think it's reasonable to ask if it's possible. To me, it seems…

People who suggest individual action doesn't matter on the scale we need to restore Earth's ability to sustain life don't know what they're talking about. I don't mean that figuratively. What they're saying is like telling someone there's no point in playing scales on the piano to reach Carnegie Hall when no one goes there to see someone play scales and that, besides, you'll just have to practice more anyway. We practice scales (or other exercises for other instruments or to play sports, lead people, or other active, social, emotional, expressive, performance-based fields) to help us improve, to master ourselves and our art. We consider it a part of life. It brings us reward, even if it keeps us from doing other things. We know…

People who suggest individual action doesn't matter on the scale we need to restore Earth's ability to sustain life don't know what they're talking about. I don't mean that figuratively. What they're saying is like telling someone there's no point in changing their baby's diaper when it won't solve infant mortality and that, besides, the baby will need its next diaper changed too. We change our baby's diapers to help the vulnerable, helpless baby. We consider it our duty. It brings us reward, even if it keeps us from doing other things. We know we value our babies' health. Yes, keeping our babies healthy helps reduce infant mortality, for which we're glad, but we don't really do it for the rest of the world. We…

I see a strong sentiment, especially among youth, of capitalism being the source of our environmental problems. I'm not sure if everyone agrees on what capitalism means. On the scale of the myriad ways thousands of human cultures have lived over hundreds of thousands of years, communism and socialism are pretty close to capitalism, compared to say, how hunting and gathering societies lived. I think most Americans can't imagine an alternative. I don't think the people criticizing it know of many alternatives. The more I read about other cultures, especially outside written history, the more alternatives I see. I view capitalism or any other economic set of ideologies like a technology. I don't see technologies as good or bad. They augment the values of the…